Climate Change and Health Outcomes in Afghanistan: An Analysis of Temperature Anomalies and Disease Burden (2010–2019)

Abstract

Aim: The purpose of this study is to investigate the association between average temperature anomalies and the burden of selected climate-sensitive diseases in Afghanistan between 2010 and 2019, in order to inform climate-resilient health planning. In particular, it examined trends in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) linked to ambient and household air pollution for acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and trachea, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancers. It also looked for statistical correlations between temperature anomalies and disease burden.

Methodology: Secondary national data from 2010 to 2019 were used in a quantitative, retrospective ecological approach. DALY data from the Global Burden of Disease Study and climatic datasets were used to determine annual average temperature anomalies. Using IBM SPSS Statistics, descriptive statistics, trend analysis using line graphs, and Pearson correlation analysis were carried out to assess the direction and strength of relationships at a 5% significance level.

Findings and Conclusion: The majority of Afghanistan's temperatures were above normal, with a mean anomaly of 0.486°C and peak warming from 2016 to 2018. ALRI DALYs declined by approximately 42%, while COPD, IHD, Stroke, and TBL cancer burdens increased steadily by 20–32% over the decade. Pearson correlation analysis revealed no statistically significant association between temperature anomalies and any health outcome (ALRI r = -.381, p = .277; COPD r = .449, p = .193; IHD r = .468, p = .172; Stroke r = .466, p = .174; TBL r = .411, p = .237). The null hypothesis was therefore retained. Findings suggest temperature anomalies alone did not explain disease burden changes, and factors such as air pollution, healthcare access, and population aging may be stronger drivers. Climate-resilient public health planning should integrate air quality management, NCD prevention, and heat-health surveillance.

Received: 03-07-2026 | Accepted: 14-07-2026 | Revised: 13-08-2026 | Published: 29-09-2026